A United Ireland: Why Unification is Inevitable and How it Will Come About - Kevin Meagher
First published in 2017 by Biteback Publishing, Hull, UK
Updated second edition published in 2022
256 pages
ISBN: 9781785906657
On May 5, 2022, the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election results found Sinn Fein as the most powerful party with 29% of the vote. For the first time in Northern Irish history, an Irish nationalist party won the most seats in the assembly. After two years of boycotts from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) over Brexit trade deals that ground the Northern Irish government to a halt, Sinn Fein Vice President Michelle O’Neill was named first minister of the Northern Irish government, sharing power with first deputy Emma Little-Pengelly from the Democratic Unionist Party. While almost wholly symbolic, this event was also highly significant in that it signaled a shift in attitudes in the North, which is steadily becoming increasingly Catholic and less Protestant, much to the dismay of Unionists.
This attitude was further cemented by the 2023 local elections in Northern Ireland On May 18, 2023, Sinn Fein once again came out on top, becoming the largest party in local government for the first time. Once again, Nationalist parties won a greater share of the vote than Unionist parties, reflecting larger demographic trends in the electorate. Although Sinn Fein downplayed their focus on a United Ireland during these campaigns, recent surveys suggest that the majority of Irish voters, especially in the Republic but much more contentiously in the North, believe that a border poll within the next decade will unite the two sides of the island.
Such an optimistic hope for Irish reunification would strike the average Irish citizen as impossible only a handful of years ago. Yet, with the political and economic fallout from Brexit, demographic shifts, and a fading memory of the lived experience of sectarian violence, the possibility of Irish reunification appears to be increasingly likely in the near future. In his book, A United Ireland: Why Unification is Inevitable and How it Will Come About, British journalist Kevin Meagher argues that the unification of Ireland is not just a possibility, but an inevitability driven by political, social, and demographic changes in Northern Ireland. Meagher contends that the growing discontent in Northern Ireland with the UK, combined with the increasing political, economic, and cultural integration between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, makes reunification a logical and unavoidable outcome.
Overview:
Meagher presents a short and punchy argument for the eventual unification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. The book examines the historical context of the conflict as well as the role of Brexit in shifting the political and economic landscape. Meagher also analyzes the changing demographics, particularly the shifting balance of Protestant and Catholic populations in Northern Ireland, which has led to growing support for unification, especially among younger generations.
In addition to demographic changes, the book discusses the impact of Brexit, which has further complicated Northern Ireland's relationship with the United Kingdom. Meagher argues that Brexit has undermined the economic and political ties that bind Northern Ireland to Britain, and it could accelerate the desire for reunification with the EU-member Republic of Ireland. By exploring the political, social, and economic factors that make the unification of Ireland increasingly likely, Meagher asserts that it is not only a possibility but an inevitability.
Meagher also addresses the potential challenges and complexities of unification, including economic integration, constitutional questions, and the concerns of Unionists. Meagher also offers a practical vision for how unification could occur, addressing the potential challenges of integrating Northern Ireland into the Republic. He proposes steps that could be taken, such as careful political negotiations, consideration of the economic implications, and ensuring that the rights of all communities, including the Protestant Unionists, are respected in the process. He concludes that while the path to a united Ireland will not be straightforward, it is a process that is already underway, driven by both internal factors in Northern Ireland and the broader geopolitical shifts in the UK and Europe.
Deeper Dive:
In his Introduction, Meagher sets the stage for his central argument in favor of the inevitability of a united Ireland. Meager admits that he is not attempting to give a historical account of Ireland or the Troubles, nor a detailed and highly nuanced work of political science. Rather, he offers a widely-scoped, broad political argument from the perspective of the British political class. Meager contends that the topic of Northern Ireland is often merely an afterthought in British politics and that it would benefit both Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom if the North were reunited with the Republic of Ireland. Thus, due to economic, demographic, and historical trends, Meagher contends that Irish unification is not a question of “if,” but “when.”
The First Chapter focuses on the historical background of the division between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, as Meagher provides some quick context for why unification is still an ongoing issue. He delves deeper into the history of Britain’s occupation of Ireland throughout the majority of the latter half of the past millennia, as well as Ireland’s fight for independence in 1916. Meagher discusses the roots of the Irish conflict, examining the role of British colonialism, the creation of Northern Ireland via the partition of 1921, and the enduring legacy of religious and political division on the island. He explores how the partition has invariably shaped relations between the two parts of Ireland, as well as the relationship between Ireland and Britain, taking the reader through a quick tour of the bloodshed that has stained Ireland over the past century and a half, including the Great Hunger, the Easter Rising, the Irish Civil War, and the Troubles.
In the Second Chapter, Meagher seeks to answer a simple (yet hard-to-answer) question: why is Northern Ireland still a part of the United Kingdom? Meagher attributes much of this to a sense of collective amnesia on the part of the British government, who do not like to think about the events that led to the partition of Northern Ireland and the ensuing violence that resulted. Meagher recounts the violent counterinsurgency efforts by the British government during the 70s, 80s, and early 90s, in which 3,600 people were killed and countless others injured. Meagher believes that for Britain, maintaining the status quo is paramount above all else, especially to avoid another outbreak of violence between Republicans and Loyalists. Yet, they ignore this growing rift to their peril, as Meagher contends that unification is inevitable. Thus, he writes, “The question, then, for British politicians is simple: would it not be better to start preparing for that day?” (60).
In Chapter Three, Meagher turns toward his economic argument in favor of a United Ireland. He examines the economic impact of partition, ultimately arguing that unification could bring economic benefits. He discusses the economic disparities between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, with the Republic increasingly prospering as part of the EU and the North declining in economic independence. As such, Meagher also addresses the impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland’s future. He explains how Brexit has created political and economic challenges for Northern Ireland, which is now separated from the European Union, unlike the Republic of Ireland. He discusses how Brexit has fueled dissatisfaction with Northern Ireland's status within the United Kingdom, with many in the region seeking closer ties to the EU and considering unification as a way to achieve this. Meagher explores how unification could potentially offer greater economic stability, especially by aligning Northern Ireland with the growing EU economy.
In Chapter Four, Meagher interrogates the assumption that the Republic of Ireland is willing to absorb the six counties in the North. He details the development of republicanism in the South, including the various splits and factions that occurred during the Irish Civil War between pro- and anti-Treaty factions, which resulted in the formation of the three largest parties in contemporary Irish politics: Fine Gael (pro-Treaty), Fianna Fáil (majority of anti-Treaty), and Sinn Féin (a minority of anti-Treaty). Meagher highlights how both of the center-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, have likewise kicked the can down the road regarding unification, often offering little more than wishy-washy platitudes. He shows how, according to poll data, the majority of citizens in the Republic of Ireland support unification, with no major demographic or geographic group opposing it. He illustrates how Sinn Féin’s recent rise in popularity is yet another signal that the South is open and the most prepared for a United Ireland. He also argues that the government in Dublin must take a proactive approach, ensuring that any unification process is democratic and respects the rights of all citizens, including unionists.
In Chapter Five, Meagher shifts his attention to declining Unionist identification and sentiment in Northern Ireland. He focuses on the shifting balance between Protestant and Catholic populations in Northern Ireland and explains how the Catholic population is growing faster and becoming more politically active, thus reducing the Protestant majority and increasing support for unification. He details the various aspects of the culture wars that still rage in Northern Ireland between Unionists and Nationalists. He explores unionist fears about losing their British identity (which he believes is weaker than Irish Nationalist cultural identity) and the perceived threats to their culture and way of life. Despite this, Meagher argues that some unionists may eventually accept unification, as it could be the most practical solution to ongoing political and economic uncertainties. As such, these traditional unionist and nationalist divides are being reshaped, particularly among younger people.
The Sixth Chapter largely focuses on the increasingly strained relationship between Northern Ireland and Britain. He reiterates that, from a British point of view, Northern Ireland is much less of a priority than Unionists think, as most British citizens are either in favor or completely indifferent to Northern Ireland leaving the UK--with only 36% opposing Irish unification (158). Some even see the North as an economic burden, costing British taxpayers $10 billion per year (186). Meagher wades into the messiness of the Brexit process and the decision to make a sea border between Ireland and the UK, thus effectively uniting the island economically. He also gauges the political atmosphere in both Northern Ireland and England in light of the Scottish movement for independence, as he sees no major political figure pushing back on the trends in support of a United Ireland. As he writes, “British and Irish political elites need to be honest in accepting that Irish unity is the most probable long-term settlement; indeed, the best outcome for both the Irish and the British people” (186).
In the Seventh and final chapter, Meagher lays out a detailed vision of how unification could occur based on the principles of peace, democracy, and negotiation. He explores the potential constitutional, political, and economic arrangements that could ease the transition. By considering the legal aspects of unification, including the increasing possibility of a border poll and emphasizing the importance of building consensus across both communities, Meagher emphasizes that unification can be achieved peacefully and well within our lifetime. In short, he concludes,
A combination of British indifference towards Northern Ireland, and the changing composition of its society, measured in demographics and electoral results, together with profound changes in Southern Ireland, in terms of the declining influence of the Catholic Church and the remarkable dynamism of the country’s economy, added to centrifugal forces in the British state that might see Scotland vote to leave the Union in the next few years, means that we will reach a point when a border poll becomes inevitable and a majority supporting Irish unity rather than remaining part of Britain will prevail. (189)
Commendations:
Meagher’s work possesses several notable strengths. First and foremost, the book is a quick and relatively easy read, as it introduces the reader to a broad overview of the arguments in favor of Irish unification. It is incredibly relevant to contemporary events, as Meagher addresses various issues such as Brexit and the shifting political landscape in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. He convincingly argues that, from a British point of view, it simply does not make economic or political sense to hold onto Northern Ireland. By weaving these factors into the narrative, the book feels particularly timely and relevant, reflecting ongoing debates and challenges regarding the future of Northern Ireland.
Meagher presents a strong, well-reasoned case for the inevitability of a united Ireland. According to him, the possibility of a United Ireland is not some faraway dream but an inevitable and fast-approaching reality. The demographic trends, the growing discontent in Northern Ireland, and the divisive impact of Brexit all serve to strengthen the argument that unification is no longer just a lofty goal but an increasingly likely outcome. I found this to be a refreshingly optimistic and timely perspective, particularly as it aligns with a vision of a more united and progressive Ireland that I would love to see come about.
Additionally, I appreciated Meagher’s attempts to contextualize the history between Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, and Britain. Again, Meagher is writing primarily for a British audience who do not often think about or consider the conflicts and challenges within Northern Ireland. So, while this context might be simplified for those already familiar with Irish history, it is immensely useful for a British audience. Meagher rightly critiques the partition of Ireland and the legacy of British colonialism that has shaped the conflict. This perspective is crucial in understanding the root causes of the divide between Northern Ireland and the Republic, as well as why unification is a just and necessary step. Meagher’s historical context is valuable for reinforcing the idea that partition was an artificial construct imposed by imperial interests, and it is essential for both Irish and British citizens to understand history as we all push for reunification.
While Meagher is hopeful and confident that unification will occur sooner rather than later, he does not shy away from the difficulties that will inevitably arise. He recognizes that by uniting into one nation, the Republic will have to absorb nearly one million Unionists, who have historical and cultural baggage that can be difficult to reconcile with their history of violence against Irish Catholics and nationalists. While I may disagree with many Unionist positions, Meagher's attempt to engage with their concerns is a strength. As such, I appreciate that the book does not disregard Unionists outright but attempts to understand their fears and perspectives. This engagement is seen as vital for building bridges and ensuring that any potential unification process is done with consideration of all people on the island, including those who may be resistant.
Relatedly, Meagher doesn’t just argue for unification as an abstract ideal; he outlines potential practical steps, offering a blueprint for how unification might happen in a peaceful, democratic manner, primarily through a border poll. Meagher’s call for a democratic and peaceful process of unification resonates with many commendable values, such as justice, peace, and democracy. The idea of achieving unification through consensus and political negotiation, rather than violent struggle, is aligned with my belief that peaceful means can achieve political change. For many Irish nationalists on the political Left today, this approach avoids repeating the mistakes of the past and can be seen as the most effective way to ensure lasting and inclusive peace. Accordingly, Meagher’s thoughtful account makes the book more actionable rather than merely theoretical.
Critique:
On the other hand, Meagher’s work suffers from a few key shortcomings. Firstly, this book is written by a British journalist and is primarily targeted at the British political class. As such, Meagher’s account often seems detached from the on-the-ground lived experiences of Irish citizens, choosing instead to rely heavily on historical precedent and economic data to bolster his position. As such, for those who are already familiar with the basic arguments for Irish unification, this book offers little new to the table. Meagher constantly repeats ideas that have been floating around for quite a while, especially within progressive nationalist spaces, making it of limited value to those who are already familiar with the discourse surrounding a United Ireland.
Additionally, while Meagher presents a compelling argument for the inevitability of unification, some may feel that the book underestimates the complexities of the political and social dynamics that would need to be navigated. The assumption that unification will occur relatively smoothly may seem overly optimistic, particularly given the deeply entrenched political divisions in Northern Ireland. Meagher employs strictly logical arguments toward why unification makes sense, often downplaying the emotional reasoning for why Ireland remains divided.
I would argue that Meagher does not sufficiently address the ideological divide between the two parts of Ireland, particularly the political and economic differences that separate Northern Ireland from the Republic. The North has a long history of neoliberal policies, while the South has gradually shifted towards a more progressive, socially democratic approach in the past decade (though it still has its major flaws, setbacks, and long history of Catholic conservatism). Meagher’s book tends to focus more on demographic changes and political alignment than on the deep ideological differences that could complicate unification. This lack of focus on class politics and the economic system could be seen as a serious oversight.
Accordingly, Meagher places significant weight on demographic changes, such as the growth of the Catholic and nationalist population in Northern Ireland, to argue that unification is inevitable. However, relying too heavily on demographic shifts alone overlooks other important factors, such as the need for political organization and class solidarity. The book risks simplifying the issue by presenting demographic changes as the primary driver of unification when, in reality, organizing for unity among working-class people across the island could be just as critical for effecting long-lasting and substantive change.
Despite his reliance on economic data for a large portion of his argument, Meagher doesn’t sufficiently tackle the practical economic implications of unification. There are significant economic challenges involved in integrating Northern Ireland into the Republic, and while Meagher touches on them briefly, the economic inequalities, especially in working-class communities in the North, are not explored in enough detail. Meagher is often overly confident that the market is correcting what is ultimately a political mistake. Writing on the economic benefits of free trade between the two parts of the island, he boldly states, “Capitalism is succeeding where politics has failed in modernising and redefining the relationship between Irish and British states. Disspassionate, hard-nosed commerce will gradually develop a single Irish economy, whether the politicaims drive the agenda or not” (83-84).
In contrast, there’s a fear that unification could lead to further austerity measures or exacerbate the social inequalities that already exist in the Republic, particularly with the increasing role of global capital and neoliberalism in both jurisdictions. Meagher’s optimism about a smooth transition too often overlooks the difficulty of addressing these issues effectively. The potential financial burden, economic disparities, and the challenges of integrating the economies of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland require much more attention.
Additionally, while Meagher acknowledges Unionist fears and concerns, he still tends to portray unification as a natural, almost inevitable, process without sufficiently addressing the deep-rooted cultural and identity-based resistance from Unionists. Unionist identity is often tied not just to the British state but to entrenched social and economic structures that have existed since the Plantation of Ulster at the beginning of the 17th century. These structures are not easily dismantled, and for many Unionists, the idea of unification is tied to a loss of their identity and status. While I have little sympathy for Unionist politics (and, indeed, see it as a major obstacle in establishing lasting peace on the island), Meagher could have explored these psychological, emotional, and cultural aspects more deeply, especially considering the role that Protestant working-class communities play in Northern Ireland's resistance to unification.
Finally, the book lacks a radical vision for post-unification Ireland, instead offering a plan for further integration into the dominant neoliberal order of global trade and financialization. There’s little in the book about how unification could be used as an opportunity to create a more just, socialist Ireland. Unification should not just be an end in itself but a means to build a better, more egalitarian society. Meagher doesn’t provide a vision for how a united Ireland could tackle wealth inequality, improve social welfare, or establish a more democratic economy. For a united Ireland to be truly successful and just, it needs to move beyond demographic arguments and engage with a more radical, progressive vision for what such a country could look like. As such, the book could have used the unification argument as a launching pad for broader progressive change on the island.
Conclusion:
Overall, A United Ireland presents a compelling and pragmatic argument for unification, highlighting the demographic and economic forces that could make a United Ireland inevitable. While leaning a bit too heavily on economic data and bordering close to an overly simplistic “demographics is destiny” argument, Meagher’s case remains a convincing account of why a United Ireland benefits Irish and British citizens alike. Rather than continuing to kick the can down the road, Meagher rightfully contends that we must begin to prepare for Irish unification now. While many of the arguments are already familiar to those with a close eye on Irish politics, and it would have benefited to more fully address the economic, ideological, and class-based divides that would impact the reunification process, Meagher’s work will strongly resonate with British and American audiences who are new and open to the idea of a United Ireland.